Oscar time!

Time and my body are conspiring against me. I wanted to do a full prediction post with commentary but I'm so tired right now that this will have to do.

Best Picture
• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King’s Speech
• 127 Hours
• The Social Network
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter’s Bone

I managed to see 7 of these this year! This is my best effort ever in collecting Oscar movies before the big day. \o/

I would put Inception and The King’s Speech at the bottom of my list. I just found TKS handsome and pleasant, but I came out of that movie and I had nothing to say about it, nothing to mull over. Whereas Inception *did* give me something to think about afterwards, but all my thinking came to the conclusion that it had been an intricately constructed house of cards, and once you find one thing to tug from the bottom, the whole thing collapses in a heap. That said, it’s an ambitious mess that was interesting enough while I was watching it in the cinemas.

Despite the fact I couldn’t hear 5/8ths of what Jeff Bridges said, I enjoyed True Grit. It’s beautifully shot (Roger Deakins FTW!), with dialogue that just crackles, and it’s funny and sobering in turns.

The Kids Are All Right is low key and really good, perfectly encapsulating for me that Larkin poem: They fuck you up, your mum and dad. / They may not mean to, but they do. / They fill you with the faults they had / And add some extra, just for you. It seems so effortlessly made but what materials it’s made of – great performances (all three of the main actresses – Annette Bening, Julianne Moore and Mia Wasikowska - are great and Mark Ruffalo works that charm of his to great advantage to the role), and the script has a great ear for the at times loving, at times tense, human rhythms of people who’ve known and loved and worn each other down for many many years.

Even now I don’t really know how I feel and what I think about Black Swan. I was engrossed watching it but I don’t think I could really say I enjoyed it and ever want to see it again. But I admire it for the crazy balls-to-the-wall OTTness of it all, the way it commits to this gorgeous gothic sensibility in everything – character, story, look and performances – and it really works.

I just loved Toy Story 3 - it’s a great balance of funny, nostalgic, eye-poppingly beautiful, sweet and reflective. And when I walked out of the cinema, feeling exhilarated, the first movie I could compare it to was Inglourious Basterds. Both take on themes of death and morality (admittedly with vastly different approaches for different comedic effect) and both are steeped in filmic history, clearly made by film lovers for film lovers. This is clear from the lovingly crafted visual and textual references (particularly to B-movie Westerns) in both movies, and the sense of great filmmaking in the care taken with the action set pieces, structure, a really clear sense of story, beautiful mise-en-scene, witty scripts and memorable characters (particularly complex, menacing and yet almost likeable villains).

But in the end, even though I know TKS probably has this in the bag, I'm still going to say The Social Network.

Prediction: The Social Network

Actor in a Leading Role
• Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
• Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
• Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
• Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”
• James Franco in “127 Hours”

Jeff Bridges is good in True Grit, but this nomination owes as much to good will from last year’s win as his performance. Javier Barden can count the nomination as the honour. Similarly, Jesse Eisenberg and James Franco are nominated to recognise their well-lauded performances but as two young first nominees in this field, they have little chance.

The award is really Colin Firth’s to lose, with the power of The King’s Speech juggernaut behind him. Despite my ambivalence about The King’s Speech as a film, he did give a good performance as the stuttering would-be king, revealing the man – loving husband and father, struggling with not just his own fears but the fears of a nation - under a stiff upper lip borne out of a cold upbringing and the burden of duty. And also, he deserved it for last year’s wonderful performance in A Single Man

Prediction: Colin Firth

Actor in a Supporting Role
• Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
• John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
• Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
• Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”

It’s been called as a two-horse race between Geoffrey Rush and Christian Bale; Rush has The King Speech’s possible sweep behind him, while Bale has won the bulk of the awards in this category over the season. I feel like I should turn in my Aussie card for saying this, but Geoffrey Rush is considered such a consistently good actor that it seems hard to see his performance in TKS as something to single out. (See his complaints about this status as a bona fide Aussie acting superstar here.) Where as Bale, despite bad press over the last year in his personal life and *that* tirade, has garnered a great deal of praise for another showy and difficult role.

Prediction: Christian Bale

Actress in a Leading Role
• Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
• Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
• Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
• Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

First things first: Hailee Steinfield belongs in this category *grumble*

Anyway. I actually enjoyed Julianne Moore and Mia Wasikowska’s performances in The Kids Are All Right more than Annette Bening’s (and I like the Bening normally). I haven’t seen any of the others apart from Natalie Portman in Black Swan but she was captivating – in nearly every single frame of the movie, sometimes duplicated, always creepy and terrified and terrifying and committed. She and Bening have split nearly all the awards between them so it’s really down to the two of them and I think Portman might just have it.

Prediction: Natalie Portman

Actress in a Supporting Role
• Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
• Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”
• Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
• Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
• Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

This sounds like a really strong field – apart from Helena Bonham Carter. It pains me to say this because I love HBC, but her role in TKS amounted to little but looking demure and supportive and lovely in period costume. And she’s better than that, and done more, and deserved this honour more for many other roles (though if you have to pick one, please watch The Wings of the Dove and tell me if it and she doesn’t break your heart by the end because it will mean you are made of STONE). So I’m glad she’s being recognized, and I hope this means she gets roles apart from Burton movies once in a while, but I don’t want her to win.

Sentimentally, I want Jacki Weaver to win – for the Aussie connection, for the fact that she has been great in Australian tv and film for so long and it’s lovely to see her get wider recognition. But I know that it would be quite hard with three other strong performances by better-known actresses or in more widely seen movies.

While Hailee Steinfeld is great in True Grit, let me call back to the category fraud – she’s in her movie more than Jeff Bridges, for goodness sake, and he’s in the Best Actor category. Bah. Also she’s only 14 and I still feel it’s a bit of a career hazard to win an Oscar so super young. So it’s down to the two actresses from the Fighter. I’m calling it for Melissa Leo because she’s had the stronger season coming in, she came close two years ago (for Best Actress) with Frozen River, and I’d be willing to bet that Amy Adams will have several more chances to win an Oscar in her years ahead.

Prediction: Melissa Leo

Directing
• “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
• “The Fighter” David O. Russell
• “The King’s Speech” Tom Hooper
• “The Social Network” David Fincher
• “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

This is TOUGH.

I'd sooner give it to anyone but Hooper in the category, for the films they’ve been nominated and body of work.

Prediction: David Fincher

Music (Original Song)
• “Coming Home” from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
• “I See the Light” from “Tangled” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
• “If I Rise” from “127 Hours” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
• “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3″ Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

Wow, I did not expect some of these nominees. And I expected at least one song from Burlesque in here.

Prediction: I See the Light, unless people decide that Alan Menken doesn’t *really* need 9 Oscars. I’d be happy to see it go to Randy Newman also.

Short Film (Animated)
• “Day & Night” Teddy Newton
• “The Gruffalo” Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
• “Let’s Pollute” Geefwee Boedoe
• “The Lost Thing” Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
• “Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)” Bastien Dubois

Aussie pride (and the fact I love his books) says Yay Shaun Tan! But I've seen clips of all the nominees and 'Madagascar, carnet de voyage' is really beautiful.

Prediction: Madagascar, carnet de voyage

Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
• “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
• “The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
• “Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
• “True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• “Winter’s Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

This one's a no brainer.

prediction: The Social Network (Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin)

Writing (Original Screenplay):
• “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
• “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
• “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
• “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
• “The King’s Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler

Hard category to pick – all films with a lot of critical praise. It’s almost certainly King’s Speech, because I’ve read that Seidler has been extremely personable in the Oscar campaign and has a great and personal story behind how this movie finally made it to screen.

Wish: Another Year, which was so beautifully quiet or The Kids Are All Right; both have a similar ability to convey a natural rhythm in dialogue and story to draw out complex human relationships and bring out characters.

Prediction: The King’s Speech

And some quick miscellaneous predictions to round it off:

Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 3
Music (Original Score): The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
Best Foreign Film: In a Better World
Best Achievement in Cinematography: True Grit (Roger Deakin)
Best Achievement in Film Editing: Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, The Social Network (more Aussies, yay!)

past nomination posts:
82nd Oscars predictions
80th Oscars Oscars predictions (on The Stirrer)

Oscars predictions 2010

I was hoping to do a week of Oscar posts, reviewing nominated movies I'd seen, but time has totally gotten away from me. And since RL has intervened, I'm not even going to be able to watch the Oscar telecast. *sigh*

So briefly, my predictions/hopes:

Best Picture

* “Avatar”
* “The Blind Side”
* “District 9”
* “An Education”
* “The Hurt Locker”
* “Inglourious Basterds”
* “Precious: Based on the Novel‘Push' by Sapphire”
* “A Serious Man”
* “Up”
* “Up in the Air”

A return to 10 nominees in this race after a break of 60+ years. I've seen only half of these (An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Up and Up in the Air) and if it were all about my tastes Inglourious Basterds would win almost everything because it just blew me away. I will say that of the five I saw, I only disliked Up in the Air and felt it didn't deserve all the acclaim it received early in the season, though both the actresses in it were great, and a cut above the rest of the material (including the screenplay, the direction, and the lead performance from George Clooney). However, the buzz has all been about the seemingly two horse race between Cameron's Avatar and Bigelow's The Hurt Locker.

wish: Inglourious Basterds
prediction: The Hurt Locker

Actor in a Leading Role

* Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
* George Clooney in “Up in the Air”
* Colin Firth in “A Single Man”
* Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”
* Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”

Like I said, Clooney was overrated in Up in the Air; he gave a much better performance, I felt, in Fantastic Mr Fox. I thought Colin Firth was so good as a restrained, repressed, grieving professor in A Single Man. Jeremy Renner was also great as the adrenaline seeking US Army soldier in the Hurt Locker, making a loose cannon of a character likeable and somewhat understandable in the circumstances. Morgan Freeman is lucky to be nominated (Invictus was lucky to be remembered at nomination time, really), but the momentum of the race has been with Jeff Bridges most of the way through awards season. It's his award to lose.

wish: Colin Firth, A Single Man
prediction: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Actor in a Supporting Role

* Matt Damon in “Invictus”
* Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”
* Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”
* Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”
* Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

If Christoph Waltz doesn't win this it will be a truly immense upset. And I want him to win all the way - who didn't come out of IB both appalled and strangely attracted to him?

wish/prediction: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Actress in a Leading Role

* Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”
* Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”
* Carey Mulligan in “An Education”
* Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
* Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

I only saw one of these performances (Carey Mulligan in An Education) and while I thought Mulligan was great in the role, I don't know if it's strong enough to take down three other very strong, much more highly rated performances in this category (Helen Mirren was a surprise nomination, and the movie has little buzz).

wish: Meryl Streep
prediction: Streep or Sandra Bullock (it's still too hard to call!)

Actress in a Supporting Role

* Penélope Cruz in “Nine”
* Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”
* Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”
* Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”
* Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Both Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick were very good in Up in the Air, bringing depth to thinly characterised female characters, making them complex emotionally in just small gestures and looks. Maggie Gyllenhaal had not made a showing the awards season at all before this Oscar nomination, and has little chance. Penelope Cruz was also, some say surprisingly, nominated over co-star Marion Cotillard, the other actress to get critical acclaim from a movie that mostly bombed; and she's playing a variation on a character that has already netted her past Academy success, so she's not likely to win here. But the one with the most acclaim, and the one who has swept most of the awards in this category over the awards season, has been Mo'Nique.

wish: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
prediction: Mo'Nique, Precious

Animated Feature Film

* “Coraline” Henry Selick
* “Fantastic Mr. Fox” Wes Anderson
* “The Princess and the Frog” John Musker and Ron Clements
* “The Secret of Kells” Tomm Moore
* “Up” Pete Docter

Coraline and Fantastic Mr Fox are sharper, more daring animated films, with a very keen sense of its visual style. But I found Up so darling - like all the Pixar movies, it balances story, whimsy, humour and beauty in a way that can be appreciated at all ages. I loved the detail, in its look as well as in its ability to capture some of the tougher emotions in life.

wish: I'd be happy if either of the 3 I mentioned won
prediction: Up

Directing

* “Avatar” James Cameron
* “The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow
* “Inglourious Basterds” Quentin Tarantino
* “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels
* “Up in the Air” Jason Reitman

TARANTINO. Because IB is a film lover's film, directed with such skill that each episode stretches, building tension, until it's wonderfully AND terrifyingly resolved, while leading onto the next part in story and in action and in look. But like Best Picture, this has been seen mostly as a race between Cameron and Bigelow, and on that score, I'd say Bigelow all the way. The Hurt Locker is a well paced movie, and it looks and feels as realistic as the action it depicts, almost effortlessly, unintrusively setting the viewer inside this hitherto shadowy world of the soldiers at war in a hostile place.

wish: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
prediction: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Foreign Language Film

* “Ajami” Israel
* “El Secreto de Sus Ojos” Argentina
* “The Milk of Sorrow” Peru
* “Un Prophète” France
* “The White Ribbon” Germany

I really want Un Prophete to win this, because it was such a good movie - exciting and interesting with a strange, dirty beauty. But I've heard that because of its gritty subject - it's about a guy trapped within racial conflicts, in prison, trying to escape the confines of this life - there's a chance the judges will go for a more conservative choice. Last year, the race seemed to be between two highly acclaimed features that had swept up all the awards before it; in the end the Oscar went to a lesser known Japanese film with a sentimental bent. So I've heard that this year, rather than the race between Un Prophete and The White Ribbon as it would seem from awards season, Argentina's 'El Secreto de Sus Ojos' might be the one to watch instead.

wish: Un Prophete, France
prediction: El Secreto de Sus Ojos, Argentina

Music (Original Score)

* “Avatar” James Horner
* “Fantastic Mr. Fox” Alexandre Desplat
* “The Hurt Locker” Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
* “Sherlock Holmes” Hans Zimmer
* “Up” Michael Giacchino

prediction: Up, Michael Giacchino

Music (Original Song)

* “Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
* “Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
* “Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36” Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
* “Take It All” from “Nine” Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
* “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

Do you know, they're not having live performances of the Best Song this year! So it's unlikely we'll see Jeff Bridges performing The Weary Kind, or Marion Cotillard singing Take It All, not even in truncated, medley form. Bah.

prediction: The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

* “District 9” Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
* “An Education” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
* “In the Loop” Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
* “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
* “Up in the Air” Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

I came out of Up in the Air disappointed by its glib smooth surface, masquerading as some kind of emotional touchstone for a disenfranchised middle America, and the more I think about it, the more I think the problems lie in the screenplay. The original screenplay by Sheldon Turner, which is closer to the original book, is meant to be even worse. I just felt it was a clumsy attempt to try to give a soulless man a soul through trite and predictable storylines and words about family and relationships. I really really hope it doesn't win.

You can read the original Lynn Barber memoir that An Education is adapted from. I found Hornby's adapation to be smart, faithful to the general sentiment of the memoir, if sugarcoating some of the events a little.

But I believe the frontrunners to be the movies I haven't seen yet! So I am making this prediction without great confidence.

wish: An Education, Nick Hornby
prediction: District 9, Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell

Writing (Original Screenplay)

* “The Hurt Locker” Written by Mark Boal
* “Inglourious Basterds” Written by Quentin Tarantino
* “The Messenger” Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
* “A Serious Man” Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
* “Up” Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

I think the buzz (and the general momentum) behind The Hurt Locker could take it to a win in this category too, and it is an interesting look at the Iraqi conflict from a very US-centric but incredibly intimate view (Boal was a journalist embedded with a explosives disposal unit, which is the focus of the film). But I think there's support behind Tarantino in this category too, and it may be the one award it picks up as a consolation.

wish: Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino
prediction: Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino

I'm not going to bother with all the technical ones, but I hope Avatar doesn't dominate just because it's high tech, blah blah blah. And I really really want Bright Star to win the award for Costume Design, because it was just such a beautiful movie with some beautiful (and relevant to the story!) costuming, but it is up against the almight Sandy Powell for The Young Victoria, sigh.


related reading:

The Red Carpet Campaign: Inside the singular hysteria of the Academy Awards race

Excellent, absorbing article on the Oscars race and the strange ups and downs, and driving narratives, of the awards season. Reprinted this weekend in the Good Weekend magazine of the Sydney Morning Herald (but you can read it here for free!)

Five Acclaimed Directors Speak Directly

Fascinating LA Times round table with the nominated directors Bigelow, Cameron, Daniels, Reitman and Tarantino about their films, processes and experiences.

Keats Speaks

On Keats, language, the spoken word, and Bright Star.


past nomination posts:
Oscars predictions 2008 (on The Stirrer)