Time and my body are conspiring against me. I wanted to do a full prediction post with commentary but I'm so tired right now that this will have to do.
Best Picture
• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King’s Speech
• 127 Hours
• The Social Network
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter’s Bone
I managed to see 7 of these this year! This is my best effort ever in collecting Oscar movies before the big day. \o/
I would put Inception and The King’s Speech at the bottom of my list. I just found TKS handsome and pleasant, but I came out of that movie and I had nothing to say about it, nothing to mull over. Whereas Inception *did* give me something to think about afterwards, but all my thinking came to the conclusion that it had been an intricately constructed house of cards, and once you find one thing to tug from the bottom, the whole thing collapses in a heap. That said, it’s an ambitious mess that was interesting enough while I was watching it in the cinemas.
Despite the fact I couldn’t hear 5/8ths of what Jeff Bridges said, I enjoyed True Grit. It’s beautifully shot (Roger Deakins FTW!), with dialogue that just crackles, and it’s funny and sobering in turns.
The Kids Are All Right is low key and really good, perfectly encapsulating for me that Larkin poem: They fuck you up, your mum and dad. / They may not mean to, but they do. / They fill you with the faults they had / And add some extra, just for you. It seems so effortlessly made but what materials it’s made of – great performances (all three of the main actresses – Annette Bening, Julianne Moore and Mia Wasikowska - are great and Mark Ruffalo works that charm of his to great advantage to the role), and the script has a great ear for the at times loving, at times tense, human rhythms of people who’ve known and loved and worn each other down for many many years.
Even now I don’t really know how I feel and what I think about Black Swan. I was engrossed watching it but I don’t think I could really say I enjoyed it and ever want to see it again. But I admire it for the crazy balls-to-the-wall OTTness of it all, the way it commits to this gorgeous gothic sensibility in everything – character, story, look and performances – and it really works.
I just loved Toy Story 3 - it’s a great balance of funny, nostalgic, eye-poppingly beautiful, sweet and reflective. And when I walked out of the cinema, feeling exhilarated, the first movie I could compare it to was Inglourious Basterds. Both take on themes of death and morality (admittedly with vastly different approaches for different comedic effect) and both are steeped in filmic history, clearly made by film lovers for film lovers. This is clear from the lovingly crafted visual and textual references (particularly to B-movie Westerns) in both movies, and the sense of great filmmaking in the care taken with the action set pieces, structure, a really clear sense of story, beautiful mise-en-scene, witty scripts and memorable characters (particularly complex, menacing and yet almost likeable villains).
But in the end, even though I know TKS probably has this in the bag, I'm still going to say The Social Network.
Prediction: The Social Network
Actor in a Leading Role
• Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
• Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
• Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
• Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”
• James Franco in “127 Hours”
Jeff Bridges is good in True Grit, but this nomination owes as much to good will from last year’s win as his performance. Javier Barden can count the nomination as the honour. Similarly, Jesse Eisenberg and James Franco are nominated to recognise their well-lauded performances but as two young first nominees in this field, they have little chance.
The award is really Colin Firth’s to lose, with the power of The King’s Speech juggernaut behind him. Despite my ambivalence about The King’s Speech as a film, he did give a good performance as the stuttering would-be king, revealing the man – loving husband and father, struggling with not just his own fears but the fears of a nation - under a stiff upper lip borne out of a cold upbringing and the burden of duty. And also, he deserved it for last year’s wonderful performance in A Single Man
Prediction: Colin Firth
Actor in a Supporting Role
• Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
• John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
• Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
• Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”
It’s been called as a two-horse race between Geoffrey Rush and Christian Bale; Rush has The King Speech’s possible sweep behind him, while Bale has won the bulk of the awards in this category over the season. I feel like I should turn in my Aussie card for saying this, but Geoffrey Rush is considered such a consistently good actor that it seems hard to see his performance in TKS as something to single out. (See his complaints about this status as a bona fide Aussie acting superstar here.) Where as Bale, despite bad press over the last year in his personal life and *that* tirade, has garnered a great deal of praise for another showy and difficult role.
Prediction: Christian Bale
Actress in a Leading Role
• Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
• Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
• Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
• Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
First things first: Hailee Steinfield belongs in this category *grumble*
Anyway. I actually enjoyed Julianne Moore and Mia Wasikowska’s performances in The Kids Are All Right more than Annette Bening’s (and I like the Bening normally). I haven’t seen any of the others apart from Natalie Portman in Black Swan but she was captivating – in nearly every single frame of the movie, sometimes duplicated, always creepy and terrified and terrifying and committed. She and Bening have split nearly all the awards between them so it’s really down to the two of them and I think Portman might just have it.
Prediction: Natalie Portman
Actress in a Supporting Role
• Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
• Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”
• Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
• Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
• Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
This sounds like a really strong field – apart from Helena Bonham Carter. It pains me to say this because I love HBC, but her role in TKS amounted to little but looking demure and supportive and lovely in period costume. And she’s better than that, and done more, and deserved this honour more for many other roles (though if you have to pick one, please watch The Wings of the Dove and tell me if it and she doesn’t break your heart by the end because it will mean you are made of STONE). So I’m glad she’s being recognized, and I hope this means she gets roles apart from Burton movies once in a while, but I don’t want her to win.
Sentimentally, I want Jacki Weaver to win – for the Aussie connection, for the fact that she has been great in Australian tv and film for so long and it’s lovely to see her get wider recognition. But I know that it would be quite hard with three other strong performances by better-known actresses or in more widely seen movies.
While Hailee Steinfeld is great in True Grit, let me call back to the category fraud – she’s in her movie more than Jeff Bridges, for goodness sake, and he’s in the Best Actor category. Bah. Also she’s only 14 and I still feel it’s a bit of a career hazard to win an Oscar so super young. So it’s down to the two actresses from the Fighter. I’m calling it for Melissa Leo because she’s had the stronger season coming in, she came close two years ago (for Best Actress) with Frozen River, and I’d be willing to bet that Amy Adams will have several more chances to win an Oscar in her years ahead.
Prediction: Melissa Leo
Directing
• “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
• “The Fighter” David O. Russell
• “The King’s Speech” Tom Hooper
• “The Social Network” David Fincher
• “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
This is TOUGH.
I'd sooner give it to anyone but Hooper in the category, for the films they’ve been nominated and body of work.
Prediction: David Fincher
Music (Original Song)
• “Coming Home” from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
• “I See the Light” from “Tangled” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
• “If I Rise” from “127 Hours” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
• “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3″ Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Wow, I did not expect some of these nominees. And I expected at least one song from Burlesque in here.
Prediction: I See the Light, unless people decide that Alan Menken doesn’t *really* need 9 Oscars. I’d be happy to see it go to Randy Newman also.
Short Film (Animated)
• “Day & Night” Teddy Newton
• “The Gruffalo” Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
• “Let’s Pollute” Geefwee Boedoe
• “The Lost Thing” Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
• “Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)” Bastien Dubois
Aussie pride (and the fact I love his books) says Yay Shaun Tan! But I've seen clips of all the nominees and 'Madagascar, carnet de voyage' is really beautiful.
Prediction: Madagascar, carnet de voyage
Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
• “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
• “The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
• “Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
• “True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• “Winter’s Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
This one's a no brainer.
prediction: The Social Network (Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin)
Writing (Original Screenplay):
• “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
• “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
• “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
• “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
• “The King’s Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler
Hard category to pick – all films with a lot of critical praise. It’s almost certainly King’s Speech, because I’ve read that Seidler has been extremely personable in the Oscar campaign and has a great and personal story behind how this movie finally made it to screen.
Wish: Another Year, which was so beautifully quiet or The Kids Are All Right; both have a similar ability to convey a natural rhythm in dialogue and story to draw out complex human relationships and bring out characters.
Prediction: The King’s Speech
And some quick miscellaneous predictions to round it off:
Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 3
Music (Original Score): The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
Best Foreign Film: In a Better World
Best Achievement in Cinematography: True Grit (Roger Deakin)
Best Achievement in Film Editing: Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, The Social Network (more Aussies, yay!)
past nomination posts:
82nd Oscars predictions
80th Oscars Oscars predictions (on The Stirrer)
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