Oscars predictions 2010

I was hoping to do a week of Oscar posts, reviewing nominated movies I'd seen, but time has totally gotten away from me. And since RL has intervened, I'm not even going to be able to watch the Oscar telecast. *sigh*

So briefly, my predictions/hopes:

Best Picture

* “Avatar”
* “The Blind Side”
* “District 9”
* “An Education”
* “The Hurt Locker”
* “Inglourious Basterds”
* “Precious: Based on the Novel‘Push' by Sapphire”
* “A Serious Man”
* “Up”
* “Up in the Air”

A return to 10 nominees in this race after a break of 60+ years. I've seen only half of these (An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Up and Up in the Air) and if it were all about my tastes Inglourious Basterds would win almost everything because it just blew me away. I will say that of the five I saw, I only disliked Up in the Air and felt it didn't deserve all the acclaim it received early in the season, though both the actresses in it were great, and a cut above the rest of the material (including the screenplay, the direction, and the lead performance from George Clooney). However, the buzz has all been about the seemingly two horse race between Cameron's Avatar and Bigelow's The Hurt Locker.

wish: Inglourious Basterds
prediction: The Hurt Locker

Actor in a Leading Role

* Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
* George Clooney in “Up in the Air”
* Colin Firth in “A Single Man”
* Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”
* Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”

Like I said, Clooney was overrated in Up in the Air; he gave a much better performance, I felt, in Fantastic Mr Fox. I thought Colin Firth was so good as a restrained, repressed, grieving professor in A Single Man. Jeremy Renner was also great as the adrenaline seeking US Army soldier in the Hurt Locker, making a loose cannon of a character likeable and somewhat understandable in the circumstances. Morgan Freeman is lucky to be nominated (Invictus was lucky to be remembered at nomination time, really), but the momentum of the race has been with Jeff Bridges most of the way through awards season. It's his award to lose.

wish: Colin Firth, A Single Man
prediction: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Actor in a Supporting Role

* Matt Damon in “Invictus”
* Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”
* Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”
* Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”
* Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

If Christoph Waltz doesn't win this it will be a truly immense upset. And I want him to win all the way - who didn't come out of IB both appalled and strangely attracted to him?

wish/prediction: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Actress in a Leading Role

* Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”
* Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”
* Carey Mulligan in “An Education”
* Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
* Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

I only saw one of these performances (Carey Mulligan in An Education) and while I thought Mulligan was great in the role, I don't know if it's strong enough to take down three other very strong, much more highly rated performances in this category (Helen Mirren was a surprise nomination, and the movie has little buzz).

wish: Meryl Streep
prediction: Streep or Sandra Bullock (it's still too hard to call!)

Actress in a Supporting Role

* Penélope Cruz in “Nine”
* Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”
* Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”
* Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”
* Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Both Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick were very good in Up in the Air, bringing depth to thinly characterised female characters, making them complex emotionally in just small gestures and looks. Maggie Gyllenhaal had not made a showing the awards season at all before this Oscar nomination, and has little chance. Penelope Cruz was also, some say surprisingly, nominated over co-star Marion Cotillard, the other actress to get critical acclaim from a movie that mostly bombed; and she's playing a variation on a character that has already netted her past Academy success, so she's not likely to win here. But the one with the most acclaim, and the one who has swept most of the awards in this category over the awards season, has been Mo'Nique.

wish: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
prediction: Mo'Nique, Precious

Animated Feature Film

* “Coraline” Henry Selick
* “Fantastic Mr. Fox” Wes Anderson
* “The Princess and the Frog” John Musker and Ron Clements
* “The Secret of Kells” Tomm Moore
* “Up” Pete Docter

Coraline and Fantastic Mr Fox are sharper, more daring animated films, with a very keen sense of its visual style. But I found Up so darling - like all the Pixar movies, it balances story, whimsy, humour and beauty in a way that can be appreciated at all ages. I loved the detail, in its look as well as in its ability to capture some of the tougher emotions in life.

wish: I'd be happy if either of the 3 I mentioned won
prediction: Up

Directing

* “Avatar” James Cameron
* “The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow
* “Inglourious Basterds” Quentin Tarantino
* “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels
* “Up in the Air” Jason Reitman

TARANTINO. Because IB is a film lover's film, directed with such skill that each episode stretches, building tension, until it's wonderfully AND terrifyingly resolved, while leading onto the next part in story and in action and in look. But like Best Picture, this has been seen mostly as a race between Cameron and Bigelow, and on that score, I'd say Bigelow all the way. The Hurt Locker is a well paced movie, and it looks and feels as realistic as the action it depicts, almost effortlessly, unintrusively setting the viewer inside this hitherto shadowy world of the soldiers at war in a hostile place.

wish: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
prediction: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Foreign Language Film

* “Ajami” Israel
* “El Secreto de Sus Ojos” Argentina
* “The Milk of Sorrow” Peru
* “Un Prophète” France
* “The White Ribbon” Germany

I really want Un Prophete to win this, because it was such a good movie - exciting and interesting with a strange, dirty beauty. But I've heard that because of its gritty subject - it's about a guy trapped within racial conflicts, in prison, trying to escape the confines of this life - there's a chance the judges will go for a more conservative choice. Last year, the race seemed to be between two highly acclaimed features that had swept up all the awards before it; in the end the Oscar went to a lesser known Japanese film with a sentimental bent. So I've heard that this year, rather than the race between Un Prophete and The White Ribbon as it would seem from awards season, Argentina's 'El Secreto de Sus Ojos' might be the one to watch instead.

wish: Un Prophete, France
prediction: El Secreto de Sus Ojos, Argentina

Music (Original Score)

* “Avatar” James Horner
* “Fantastic Mr. Fox” Alexandre Desplat
* “The Hurt Locker” Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
* “Sherlock Holmes” Hans Zimmer
* “Up” Michael Giacchino

prediction: Up, Michael Giacchino

Music (Original Song)

* “Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
* “Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
* “Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36” Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
* “Take It All” from “Nine” Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
* “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

Do you know, they're not having live performances of the Best Song this year! So it's unlikely we'll see Jeff Bridges performing The Weary Kind, or Marion Cotillard singing Take It All, not even in truncated, medley form. Bah.

prediction: The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

* “District 9” Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
* “An Education” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
* “In the Loop” Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
* “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
* “Up in the Air” Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

I came out of Up in the Air disappointed by its glib smooth surface, masquerading as some kind of emotional touchstone for a disenfranchised middle America, and the more I think about it, the more I think the problems lie in the screenplay. The original screenplay by Sheldon Turner, which is closer to the original book, is meant to be even worse. I just felt it was a clumsy attempt to try to give a soulless man a soul through trite and predictable storylines and words about family and relationships. I really really hope it doesn't win.

You can read the original Lynn Barber memoir that An Education is adapted from. I found Hornby's adapation to be smart, faithful to the general sentiment of the memoir, if sugarcoating some of the events a little.

But I believe the frontrunners to be the movies I haven't seen yet! So I am making this prediction without great confidence.

wish: An Education, Nick Hornby
prediction: District 9, Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell

Writing (Original Screenplay)

* “The Hurt Locker” Written by Mark Boal
* “Inglourious Basterds” Written by Quentin Tarantino
* “The Messenger” Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
* “A Serious Man” Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
* “Up” Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

I think the buzz (and the general momentum) behind The Hurt Locker could take it to a win in this category too, and it is an interesting look at the Iraqi conflict from a very US-centric but incredibly intimate view (Boal was a journalist embedded with a explosives disposal unit, which is the focus of the film). But I think there's support behind Tarantino in this category too, and it may be the one award it picks up as a consolation.

wish: Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino
prediction: Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino

I'm not going to bother with all the technical ones, but I hope Avatar doesn't dominate just because it's high tech, blah blah blah. And I really really want Bright Star to win the award for Costume Design, because it was just such a beautiful movie with some beautiful (and relevant to the story!) costuming, but it is up against the almight Sandy Powell for The Young Victoria, sigh.


related reading:

The Red Carpet Campaign: Inside the singular hysteria of the Academy Awards race

Excellent, absorbing article on the Oscars race and the strange ups and downs, and driving narratives, of the awards season. Reprinted this weekend in the Good Weekend magazine of the Sydney Morning Herald (but you can read it here for free!)

Five Acclaimed Directors Speak Directly

Fascinating LA Times round table with the nominated directors Bigelow, Cameron, Daniels, Reitman and Tarantino about their films, processes and experiences.

Keats Speaks

On Keats, language, the spoken word, and Bright Star.


past nomination posts:
Oscars predictions 2008 (on The Stirrer)